![]() For decades, China enforced a strict one-child policy in a bid to rein in population growth now couples are permitted to have up to three children but the country is struggling to encourage higher birth rates Image: Jiang Keqing/Xinhua/picture alliance The government in Beijing famously halted its one-child policy, implemented at the peak of population growth to try to keep the numbers in check, in 2015, establishing a two-child limit. China's first year of negative population growth in decades in 2022Ĭhina's rapid population growth rise from 580 million in a 1953 census through to 1.4 billion by 2018 has been showing signs of flattening out for years. ![]() India's economic clout remains more undersized than China's, though, with its GDP roughly equivalent to that of the UK and France, both with populations closer to 65 million people. Since then, the delayed process has become bogged down in logistical hurdles and even allegations of the government looking to stall until the next elections in 2024 are complete.īut since 1950, India's population has risen more than threefold, from estimates of around 360 million to today's figure approaching 1.5 billion. India's 2021 census was postponed with Prime Minister Narendra Modi's administration citing the COVID-19 pandemic. And even China's recent official figures could be subject to a margin of error. The Indian government's last official census was in 2011, meaning figures on its population are estimates. UN population officials have said it is not possible to provide a specific date because of "uncertainty" about the data. The science behind the studies is necessarily inexact, and some other estimates suggest the changeover may have already happened - but there's long been consensus that the handover was imminent. India has been on course to overtake its neighbor China for some time Image: Vijay Pandey/ZUMA Press/picture alliance Inexact Indian estimates amid COVID-delayed census The report also put the global population by the end of June at 8.045 billion, with India and China accounting for roughly 2.85 billion by themselves. That would make India's still-growing population around 3 million larger than that of China, which recorded its first year of negative population growth in decades in 2022. The United Nations Population Fund's six-monthly State of World Population report estimated India's population would be 1.4286 billion compared to China's 1.4257 billion at the end of June. India is on course to overtake China as the most populous country on the planet by the second half of the year, new UN estimates published on Wednesday predict.
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